Understand CAGR, XIRR and Rolling Returns through live calculators and a real case study on Nippon India Large Cap Fund.
CAGR — Compound Annual Growth Rate
CAGR smooths your investment into one annualised percentage, assuming a lump sum at the start and a single exit. Adjust the sliders to see it recalculate live.
CAGR = (End Value ÷ Start Value)1/Years − 1
Lump sum invested (₹)₹10,00,000
End value (₹)₹17,60,000
Holding period (years)5 yrs
⚠ The start-date trap: Same fund, same exit — but switching the entry from a market bottom to a market peak can swing CAGR by 15–18 percentage points. Always ask "from which date?" when you see a CAGR figure.
Growth of investment (illustrative path vs CAGR line)
CAGR (smooth)
Actual path
Key insight: CAGR hides all volatility. A fund that dropped 40% in year 2 and recovered sharply shows the same CAGR as one that grew smoothly. That is why CAGR alone is insufficient for fund evaluation.
Entry-date sensitivity — Nippon India Large Cap Fund (illustrative)
Entry: Aug 2007
13.3%
Inception — 19 years
Entry: Jan 2014
10.5%
Normal entry — 12 years
Entry: Mar 2020
~24%
COVID bottom — cherry-picked!
Entry: Jan 2022
~6%
Near peak — painful entry
XIRR — SIP Returns Calculator
XIRR is the only correct metric for SIPs and any investment with multiple cash flows at irregular dates. It accounts for the timing of every instalment.
NPV = Σ [ CF(t) ÷ (1 + XIRR)t/365 ] = 0
Monthly SIP amount (₹)₹10,000
Duration (years)10 yrs
Expected annual return (%)17.35%
Benchmark rate (Nifty 100 TRI): 15.54%
Invested vs corpus growth over time
Invested
Benchmark
Fund corpus
Why XIRR often beats lump sum CAGR: SIP investors automatically accumulate more units during market crashes at depressed NAVs. This rupee cost averaging effect boosts XIRR above the simple lump sum CAGR — but only XIRR captures it correctly.
Rolling Returns — Distribution Analysis
Rolling returns compute CAGR for every possible holding-period window in the fund's history. Adjust the window to see how risk and return change with time horizon.
Rolling window (years)3 yrs
Return distribution histogram (illustrative)
Rolling 3-yr CAGR — Fund vs Benchmark
Nippon Large Cap
Nifty 100 TRI
3-year window
Fund CAGR
Nifty 100
Outcome
Jan 2013 → Jan 2016
18.2%
16.1%
Beat +2.1%
Jan 2015 → Jan 2018
9.6%
9.8%
Slight miss
Jan 2017 → Jan 2020
11.4%
10.2%
Beat +1.2%
Mar 2020 → Mar 2023
28.4%
24.6%
Beat +3.8%
Jan 2021 → Jan 2024
14.9%
13.1%
Beat +1.8%
Jan 2022 → Jan 2025
9.2%
10.4%
Under −1.2%
* Approximate data for educational purposes. Verify on Value Research / AMFI.
Nippon India Large Cap Fund — Full Case Study
Nippon India Large Cap Fund · Direct Plan · Growth · Benchmark: Nifty 100 TRI
Fund at a glance — May 2026
Current NAV
₹99.81
AUM
₹51,690 Cr
Inception CAGR
13.3%
10-yr SIP XIRR
17.35%
Benchmark CAGR
11.87%
XIRR Alpha
+1.81%
5-yr return
15.62%
Expense ratio
0.71%
NAV journey — Aug 2007 to May 2026 (illustrative)
Nippon Large Cap
Nifty 100 TRI
COVID crash visible: March 2020 saw the fund NAV fall ~38% from its Jan 2020 level. Investors who entered at this point report a spectacular CAGR. All other investors from earlier periods had to wait 18 months to recover. Neither experience is fully captured by a single trailing CAGR.
₹10,000/month SIP for 10 years — fund vs benchmark
3-yr rolling beat rate
Windows analysed
6
Across 12 years
Benchmark beaten
5 / 6
83% beat rate
Max 3-yr CAGR
28.4%
Mar 2020 entry
Min 3-yr CAGR
9.2%
Jan 2022 entry
Median 3-yr CAGR
13.1%
Typical experience
All windows positive?
Yes
100% positive
Which Number Should You Trust?
Each metric answers a different question. Using the wrong one doesn't give you a wrong number — it gives you an answer to a question you didn't ask.
💰
Lump sum evaluation
Use CAGR when comparing a single investment from a known start date to a known end date. Ensure both comparison funds use identical date ranges.
Use: CAGR
🔄
SIP / multiple cash flows
XIRR is the only correct metric when cash flows occur at different dates. SEBI mandates XIRR for all SIP return disclosures since 2021.
Use: XIRR
📊
Fund selection & comparison
Rolling returns reveal consistency across market cycles. Compare median rolling CAGR, % positive windows, and benchmark beat rate — not just trailing CAGR.
Use: Rolling Returns
🚩
Reading fund advertisements
Fund ads use CAGR because it is the most manipulable. A "24% CAGR" almost always uses a COVID-bottom start date. Always ask: "From which date?" Then check rolling returns.
Be sceptical of CAGR
"The three questions every investor must ask: What was the start date? What happens to this return if I shift the start date by 6 months? And how often has this fund delivered positive returns over my intended holding period?"
Attribute
CAGR
XIRR
Rolling Returns
What it measures
Lump sum annualised return
Return on any set of dated cash flows
Distribution across all entry points
Cash flows
Single invest + exit only
Multiple, irregular dates
Each window is a separate CAGR
Output
One %
One %
Range: min, median, max, % positive
Best for
Lump sum, benchmark comparison
SIP returns, personal portfolio
Fund selection, consistency check
Main weakness
Start-date sensitive; hides path
Depends on cash flow timing
Needs long data history
SEBI requirement
Point-to-point disclosures
Mandatory for SIP return claims
Not mandated; used by analysts
Nippon India (real data)
13.3% (inception)
17.35% (10-yr SIP)
Beat benchmark 5/6 windows
DISCLAIMER: This dashboard is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks. NAV and return data are approximate and for illustrative purposes — verify from official AMC, AMFI, or Value Research sources. The author is a finance educator and not a registered investment advisor.